politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s impending victory affects the Mayoral betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s impending victory affects the Mayoral betting
Mike ran a thread the other day looking for markets that might be affected by Jeremy Corbyn’s likely victory in the Labour leadership stakes. He highlighted NO in the EU betting where I’d agree odds of nearly 4/1 are tempting.
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Mike should sign him up immediately to write more pieces having this degree of prescience and quality, especially so now that Peter the Punter appears to have departed this parish.
Btw, in stating above that " Labour’s candidate is being decided on the same ballot paper as the leadership", are we to take it that all Labour members are provided with a vote on who is to become their party's candidate for London's Mayor and not simply those who members who live within the Capital ...... surely that simply cannot be the case?
And I'm wondering why anyone would want to support Tessa through the use of betting markets? I understand why a US Presidential candidate would want to do it - to keep financial backers on board, but is that really applicable in this case?
I think the logic that there is likely to be a lot of overlap between Corbyn and Kahn, but I wonder how many of the sign ups and affiliates in London are only interested in voting for Corbyn and aren't bothered about the Mayoral election.
1. I would not trust Livingstone's word too much.
2. Khan is not that well known, especially among £3ers who will have signed up just for Corbyn.
3. Jowell is well-known and is a woman - lots of voters will notice they have not voted for a woman as leader or deputy.
4. Tom Watson was very pro-Iraq war, is very much the insider and part of the machine. He looks certain to be elected Deputy, so the voting is not as binary as it may first appear.
That said, if Jowell does win the nomination the Corbyn factor could still drag her down. I'd make Goldsmith slight favourite against her. He's a shoe-in against Khan.
We've had two excellent guest pieces in as many days.
Or is David Lammy clutching at straws...
If it were the Conservatives, I don't suppose people would notice. But it's not difficult to imagine all those feminists and their male allies carping about the fact that 40 years after the Conservatives elected a woman to lead them, Labour remains still very masculine in its leadership compared to their rivals - even though I believe I am right in saying the PLP has more women in it than the PCP despite being about 30% smaller overall. What message would they think that sent about their commitment to equality between the sexes?
(It is also possible to construct an ethnic argument on those lines as well, of course.)
I often feel that those who involve themselves heavily in political betting seem to invest a disproportionate amount of time given the returns available but it is made a lot more attractive when someone does all the hard work for you like this. Just a terrific piece of work.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11808589/Yvette-Cooper-Andy-Burnham-is-too-similar-to-Jeremy-Corbyn-and-must-step-aside.html
Tony Blair must be looking on and wondering what is the monster that he created, if only for not clipping Brown's wings.
People underestimate Boris' achievement in winning London for the Tories. Even given the Livingstone factor it was a remarkable achievement. I have yet to be convinced that Goldsmith is even close to being another Boris. Given the 2015 election results in London (in an election they lost badly) Labour should win the Mayoralty at a canter.
What I loathe about the identity politics adopted by Labour is precisely this - that they end up with candidates appealing to the worst aspects of the most extreme parts of groups defined by race or religion.
Livingstone was a master at this. It - and he - was loathsome and he deservedly lost. The fact that he is now backing Khan and bounding around with glee at the prospect of a Corbyn win is nothing but bad news for Londoners and Labour.
Also watch out for 6-4 Khan to get the nomination at traditional bookies.
Back
Zac Goldsmith 3.25 £125.00
David Lammy 45.26 £27.00
Diane Abbott 64.98 £6.00
Lay
Tessa Jowell 3.14 £56.00
David Lammy 21 £26.32
I remember back in the 1970s being told that, whilst Labour might sometimes take office, the Tories were always in power. The experiece of 1997-2010 has confirmed that for many people - the only ones who disbelieve it seem to be the Tory activists on here!
Tooting has become fairly marginal over the years, and would be a good test for Corbyn. If he cannot win a Lab marginal in London then where can he win?
Very good price, Mr. Price.
Mr. F, hailing from the blessed realm of Yorkshire, I'm unfamiliar with why Londoners might consider racial quotas some sort of positive. It's despicable and indefensible. Why would some depraved lunatics consider it a good thing?
Mr. Observer, bearing in mind the above caveat on my lack of knowledge about London, why do you think he's certain to lose? The contest, judging from graphs above, would be a little better for the blues than if Jowell were the candidate for Labour, but it's not an unbreakable Conservative lead by any stretch (and that's assuming Goldsmith gets the gig).
It would appear that either Corbyn is lying or that he doesn't know what he's talking about. Either way, it's rather worrying. But I don't suppose that either case would make any meaningful difference to his admirers, who will put it all down to media bias.
I just hope i'm not lapped first.
This is unlikely to be true. If you are sad/comitted to give £3 to Labour and live in London, you'll know who Khan is !
No ballot paper still. Like waiting for christmas
It would appear that either Corbyn is lying or that he doesn't know what he's talking about. Either way, it's rather worrying. But I don't suppose that either case would make any meaningful difference to his admirers, who will put it all down to media bias.
The simple fact is the vast majority of the UK are either completely indifferent to Israel/Palestine or see Israel as a vile intransigent racist bully steadily dispossessing a helpless people. This Israel-first attitude that happily swallows the clear and obviously tired boy-who-cried-wolf strategy of smearing anyone who publically advocates for the pro-Palestinian cause as anti-semitic, pointing to a few nutters, is confined to a tiny establishment echo chamber.
Note that polls show about 70% + of the UK have negative views of Israel, and I imagine most of them would give the establishment/israel love in and its predictable smears short shrift.
"The plan, apparently, is for Cameron to have a “big row with the French” in February, which will be “choreographed” so that, when it is over, the Prime Minister will be able to claim that the terms of EU membership have been “renegotiated”. On that basis, he will call for a vote to say “yes” to continued membership of the bloc. The French are reportedly as anxious as Cameron is to keep Britain within the EU, so can be relied upon to play their part...
But this is a childish way to handle relations with Europe. How much more honest Cameron would be if he were to admit that the EU is a complicated, flawed structure in which change comes at a snail’s pace – yet, for all its faults, we are better off in than out."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/doublespeak-deciphered-andrew-lansley-dares-to-reveal-the-truth-about-david-camerons-eu-plan-10459808.html
Note that polls show about 70% + of the UK have negative views of Israel, and I imagine most of them would give the establishment/israel love in and it's predictable smears short shrift.
It's a theory. A theory that ignores all the information in the original post, but a theory nonetheless.
A south of Scotland town is to host the World Gold Panning Championships in two years' time.
The British Gold Panning Association has won the rights to hold the event and will bring it to Moffat in 2017
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-33963777
How can he refuse court?
"Tube stabbing: cell-based court hearing for man charged with attack
Adeyemi Adekeye, accused of attacking David Dane at Finsbury Park, refuses to appear in Highbury magistrates court, so magistrates and lawyers visit his cell"
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/aug/13/tube-stabbing-adeyemi-adekeye-david-dane-finsbury-park-highbury?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews
Every Jew in Europe has chosen not to live in Israel. Some of them have even been there and returned.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/17/ignore-twitter-forget-the-polls-corbyns-not-going-to-win/
If people here take their partisan specs off, do they not think it odd that prominent opponents of Israel's gross injustices in the occupied territories are always smeared as anti-semitic?
Let some muppet have a few easy victories at the start then time your form towards the end and give him the mother of all shellackings at the end that he'll never forget.
What's your point? Every Jew America has chosen not to live in Israel. By all means defend the vicious bigot Corbyn's antisemitic racist fellow travellers but make a better job of defending the murderous anti western barstewards than that.
As we've seen on this thread, reasoned arguments about his grave shortcomings and unsavoury associates no longer sway Corbyn supporters - they just brush it off or try to change the subject to something else. So it's very hard to see, short of some actual criminal offence being uncovered (which with all his faults seems unlikely) what could stop him now.
Atul and his bizarre gang on his tiny blog read pretty much exclusively by Tories are the ones in a desulsional bubble, not the Corbyn supporters.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-33960075
A fair point. I played Skyrim for ages, and afterwards I couldn't stop shouting at people.
How do deal with the effects of globalisation.
How do combat the exodus from Africa and the Middle East
How to combat militant Islam.
Interestingly (yes really) next years championships are being held in El Dorado, Ca.
Most interesting Tissue Price. What though of Karen Brady - she's 11. There has been the odd murmour that she might run.
Labour insiders familiar with the latest figures have told Uncut that the picture for Labour in marginal seats, where it is fighting the Tories, is almost uniformly grim.
Seats that canvass returns had suggested were strong prospects for gains are much more finely balanced and those that were close are swinging heavily to the Tories.
The tartan scare is working with the fear of McLabour shifting large numbers of wavering Lib Dems and Ukippers into the Tory column.
Mr Burnham had earlier said that if he won he would offer Mr Corbyn a role.
But fellow leadership candidate Yvette Cooper said Mr Burnham should withdraw from the race if he was not prepared to oppose the left-winger.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33970252
Is Burnham anyone's w****e?
"The very thin silver lining to the disastrous postal ballot field reports is Scotland: while the position in is bad, it is not the total meltdown suggested by the polls."
And:
"According to the postal ballot reports, over half of Labour’s seats are genuinely winnable."
So Karren Brady is a definite lay.
Reminds me of a Jeremy Vine quote about how his daughters were still too young to think/realise their father was a k***. No idea what four letter word would start with a K.
Poor strategy and poor tactics.
wiffle?
woggle?
wimple?
The demographic stats on London must favour a Labour mayoral win I would have thought? In a few years it'll be red rosette on a donkey territory surely the way it seems to be going.
What is quite common is the implied reverse coattail: "Vote for me because I'm very close to [popular candidate] X", designed to appeal to X's supporters. X can't really say bugger off, you're not really close to me, so the selectorate who like X get the message whether it's true or not. But none of the deputy candidates have been playing that game this time - they all say carefully that they'll vote with whoever is elected leader, without expressing a preference, and Abbott has endorsed Corbyn but hasn't been making a big thing out of it. I'm aware of the preferences of a couple of the other candidates but they've chosen not to make them public.